Market TimerTM is the first and only, easy-to-use swing timing(1) tool that tracks, measures, and quantifies the herding behavior of market participants so you can profit ahead of the crowd. You'll feel like an insider because you'll see what is really happening inside the market. But we guarantee it's 100% legal. Once you see how powerful it is we think you'll agree with us that it is the ultimate trading tool for catching the BIG SWINGS.

We started with a simple "what if" question: What if market participants are "herding"? In other words, small changes in market buying and selling by a few can trigger a herding effect which results in the market trends we see over time. We used quantitative analysis on fundamental internal market data and found that "herding"(2) to be an accurate description of the behavior of market particpants(3).

How Do We Measure, Quantify and Track Market Herding?

FIRST. We quantify market participants herding (i.e. buying and selling) behavior through our proprietary MT Supply/Demand IndexTM* (MTSD). The MTSD Index gives us a specific positive (indicating buying/demand) or negative (indicting selling/supply) number. The amount of selling or buying pressure on the market for any particular day is typically in a range from +50 to -50 but in cases of extreme herding behavior it can go outside these averages indicating climax buying or selling signaling the end of a trend. We can tell if the market is starting to herd in the direction of higher prices or herd in the direction of lower prices by watching the MTSD numbers over a few days and then position our swing trades accordingly.

SECOND. Our Balance of PowerTM (BoP) signal tracks the movement of the herd and shows us who is in control (buyers or sellers) at any one time. BoP is a unique visual representation of the herd moving through the market. The herd, which includes all market participants (retail, HFT, prop, institutional traders, etc.)2, moves the market in the direction of 'risk on' behavior (positive herding/buying/low volatility) or 'risk off' behavior (negative herding/selling/high volatility). We see evidence in our BoP signal that the entire market is driven by this herding effect and we can actually observe the "shift" (visual below) taking place from one side to the other as the herd moves through the marketplace.

THIRD. Finally our proprietary MT Volatility IndexTM (MTVol) This index measures the shift in the herd when buying to selling or selling to buying is likely to take place. The average range for the index is between 50% (buying) to 150% (selling) but it can move outside this range in times of extreme positive or negative herding. When MTVol is trending lower it indicates positive herding (buying). When MTVol starts to trend higher, it tells us the herd is starting to get nervous (imminent danger) and the market could move lower through negative herding (selling). If, for example, MTVol is rising and goes above 110% it indicates we are in a bear market and a major market decline is probably underway (see Case Study #3 below). If we are under 100% - generally between 50% and 85% - we are in bull market territory and stocks will rise (read Case Studies #1, #2 and #4 below).

Of the thousands of systems and ways people try and analyze the market we think Market Timer stands apart... and is much more accurate than any other. For the first time you'll see the market in a new way - as an "insider" - and you'll actually see herding in action - you'll see the herd shift from buying to selling and selling to buying and you'll be able to tell if the selling or buying you see is real herding or just a few strays on the loose. Finally you'll have the confidence of being in charge of your financial destinty.

Our Promise: You will not find a more accurate tool for measuring and tracking market moves and the big swings anywhere else. Period.

*Richard D. Wyckoff, who many consider to be the father of technical analysis, held the belief "that stock prices were determined solely by supply and demand". We agree. (Kickpatrick and Dalquist, Technical Analsis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, Pearson 2016)

What Is Market Timer?

Market Timer is an MSExcel(tm) spreadsheet that can be easily updated by our clients (with publically available data) to provide actionable insights into herding activity (crowd behavior) in the market. The correlations, data relationships and formulas to extract the signals in Market Timer have been honed over the past 25 years, so this is not a 'new' tool. The original developer of the spreadsheet discovered that there was a high, positive correlation between certain internal market data and daily closing prices of the DOW Industrial Average and the S&P500. This correlation provided key insights into buying and selling activity in the market which we attribute to the behavior of the self-interest of crowds (herding). When we saw the data we realized it is too much of a coincidence that the market would eventually rise when we saw a period of accumulation (positive numbers) in the MTSD (i.e. positive herding activity/buying) and low MTVol- and the market would decline in a significant way for a long period of time when we saw distribution (negative numbers) in the MTSD and high MTVol. The ebb and flow of the MTSD and the shift from buying to selling and selling to buying visible in the BoP appeared to one of our peers to simulate "herding" activity by market participants. We know that, at the very least, participants in the stock market herd and there is some excellent research on herding in the financial markets (see footnotes).

How Does Market Timer Work?

The Market Timer spreadsheet digs deep into five core internal market data inputs. Using only the most core fundamental data provides powerful insights. At one time in the spreadsheets' development there were dozens of data points used in the calculations. Over time, it was discovered which data points were the most critical, most efficient and most effective in generating actionable signals that correlated to movement of the herd (predicative values). The data used today in Market Timer is simple for our clients to update - just five pieces of data, available for free from many sources, are required daily to update the spreadsheet and generate the MT signals. You can also just download the updated spreadsheet each day from us in the download area after the market close. Those five data points are examined from every possible angle: Correlations & relationships are examined in the first layer of data and refined in a deep learning algorithm imitating a recurrent neural network to extract precise, daily (and intra-day), MT numbers. Multi-tier recursive layers output actionable insights for quantifying supply and demand, identifying positive or negative herding in the financial markets giving us a powerful prediction algorithm.

What Is the Best Way To Profit From Market Timer?

The best way to profit from Market Timer is to identify where the market herd is heading and then positioning yourself to go long or short the major market index of your choice (S&P500 or DOW30). When the Signal/Trend column indicates the direction of the market as "UP" - go long... or "DOWN" - go short. When you see "---" three ellipsis in the Signal/Trend column it means the signals are neutral.

Many of our clients keep it simple by purchasing long calls (at the beginning of an UP signal) or long puts (at the beginning of a DOWN signal) on major market ETF's and holding until they see Market Timer change to "Neutral' or 'DOWN'. 

Are The Market Timer Signals Generated Automatically?

The MT Supply/Demand Index (MTSD), MT Volatility Index (MTVol) and the Bullish and Bearish Balance of Power (BoP) columns and signals are calculated automatically once the data is entered in your spreadsheet. There are only five cells that need input after the market closes. It's easy, and simple. A quick look will tell you what the herd is going to do over the next few days/weeks by watching these three signals.

Is Market Timer Reliable?

Market Timer is the most accurate major market index timing tool in existence and we welcome the opportunity to prove it to you. There is nothing else like it and there is no other tool that is more accurate for trading the big market swings (positions that last from a few days to a month or more).

Can I Update the Spreadsheet On My Own?

Yes. In fact you will be able to update and input the data required yourself to keep the spreadsheet current as long as you are a subcriber. You may also download the current spreadsheet with market closing data, values, Notes, and Signal/Trend each evening in the download area.

What Is Included With A Market Timer Subscription?

You will receive a copy of our Historic MT Data Spreadsheet with MTVol, MTSD and BoP signals from December 2008 to December 2015. You'll be able to study and review the MT Signals during this time to get a better understanding of the power of Market Timer. You'll also receive the current MT Spreadsheet with Notes and Signals/Trend covering January 2016 thru today's close. In addition, you'll receive instructions on how to update the spreadsheet yourself, if you choose to. Finally, you'll receive our weekly, in-depth newsletter, Market Timer Insights. MTI provides a unique market persepctive based on MT signals and data. You'll never wonder again "why" the maket is going up or down or sideways... you'll know.

Do You Send Trade Alerts? 

Our job is to provide unbiased analysis of market herding activity. We leave the trading to you. Market Timer works better than any other swing trading and timing tool anywhere but there are several reasons why we do not provide alerts or trade recommendations. First, we do not want to change or affect the market by creating alerts on a specific instrument that would change the pricing of that instrument. There are many ways to take advantage of Market Timer signals and since we do not provide individual investment advice or know the financial situation of each of our clients we do not send trade alerts recommending specific trades, investments, instruments, prices to buy/sell, etc. Second, the instruments you use depends on your objectives, experience, methods and preferences. Some clients buy the entire index, some use index options, some use futures, others use a combination of the two. Included with each weekly MTI newsletter we update the signals and potential points gained or lost by Market Timer in the Signals/Trend column for you in our Aggressive and Conservative Model Portfolio section so you can track our accuracy.

What Is the Signals/Trend Column and Is It Updated Each Day?

The Market Timer spreadsheet is updated daily with one of three possible signals: "UP", "DOWN", or "..." (which indicates a neutral position on the market). Simply follow our model portfolio in the MTI newsletter and you be the judge.

Is There A Money Back Guarantee?

Of course. If for any reason you are not completely happy, super-satisfied and very excited with the accuracy or performance of Market Timer we will refund your most recent payment without question.

Are There Any Other Costs I Should Know About?

No. Once you subscribe to Market Timer you will not need to subscribe to any other service to use it.

Footnotes

1 MS Excel Version 15 or higher required.

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2 "Some followers of the technical analysis school of investing see the herding behavior of investors as an example of extreme market sentiment.[8] The academic study of behavioral finance has identified herding in the collective irrationality of investors, particularly the work of Nobel laureates Vernon L. Smith, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, and Robert Shiller.[9][a] [emphasis added]. Hey and Morone (2004) analyzed a model of herd behavior in a market context. Their work is related to at least two important strands of literature. The first of these strands is that on herd behavior in a non-market context. The seminal references are Banerjee (1992) and Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992), both of which showed that herd behavior may result from private information not publicly shared. More specifically, both of these papers showed that individuals, acting sequentially on the basis of private information and public knowledge about the behavior of others, may end up choosing the socially undesirable option. The second of the strands of literature motivating this paper is that of information aggregation in market contexts. A very early reference is the classic paper by Grossman and Stiglitz (1976) that showed that uninformed traders in a market context can become informed through the price in such a way that private information is aggregated correctly and efficiently. In this strand of the literature, the most commonly used empirical methodologies to test for herding toward the average, are the works of Christie and Huang (1995) and Chang, Cheng and Khorana (2000). Overall, it was shown that it is possible to observe herd-type behavior in a market context... this has important consequences for a whole range of real markets." [emphasis added] (SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behavior)

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"The herding measure essentially tests whether the observed distribution of Pit is fat tailed relative to the expected distribution under the null hypothesis that trading decisions are independent and conditional on the overall observed level of buying... (1) The latter term in this measure... accounts for the fact that we expect to observe more variation in the proportion of buys in stocks with few trades (see Lakonishok et al., 1992, for details). If small trades are independent, the herding measure will have a mean of zero. We calculate the mean herding measure in each month from January 1983 through December 2000 for both large and small trades. For small trades [$5000 or less], the mean herding measure is 7% and is positive in 214 out of 216 months. This measure of herding is in the same ballpark as the monthly herding measures of 6.8% to 12.8% estimated for individual investors by Barber, Odean, and Zhu (forthcoming). For large trades [$50,000 or more], the mean herding measure we estimate is 10% and is positive in 196 out of 216 months.[emphasis added]" (SOURCE: https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/Papers%20current%20versions/DoRetailTradesMoveMarkets_RFS_2009.pdf?abstract_id=869827)

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"The term herd behavior as it applies to humans first appears in Dr. Wilfred Trotter's 1914 book Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War. It wasn't exactly a new idea, though Trotter can be credited with the phrase. Sigmund Freud, for instance, extensively discusses his ideas of crowd psychology, and Carl Jung suggests that such psychology is the result of universal or collective unconscious... 

...You may see many examples of herd behavior in economics. For instance, if a few people begin to sell a certain type of stock, it may lead to a mass selling spree, panic, and leave the market open to crashing. [emphasis added] Similarly, you might look at the behavior in the retail environment on day after Thanksgiving sales (known as Black Friday). People have been injured in attempting to get to a special item offered at a very good price, when the doors of a store opens and the crowd stampedes in. Such stampedes have also occurred at rock concerts with open seating, where all people try to rush to get the closest seats to the front. Remember Tickle me Elmo or Beanie Babies, people were stealing, waiting in line and fighting over these items. These have occasionally had tragic results. Other areas that this plays in is Gangs, people join and belong to Gangs for a sense of being, belonging, safety in numbers, to have power, feel secure and safe in their area. Teenagers and school kids will smoke to be cool or accepted, they will join band or sports or some group that enable them to belong or to be with the same type of people, where they connect or feel safe. Look at sporting events where crowds of people yell and cheer for their teams, they get protective, where the same colors and dislike and opposite team. As the crowd cheers or boo's the fans join in and mod up. In riots, people get caught up in the violence and excitement and chaotic behavior and then that attitude continues to grow and progress and soon you have a stampede.One aspect of herd behavior that is often noted is that the herd is not completely interested in protection of the group. Instead self-interest (self-preservation) is a primary motivator. Herd animals, when they fear a predator, work to get into the center of the herd so they are less vulnerable and safer. Just as people have only self-interest in mind when they knock over others to get to a cheaply sold item, or the front seats of a rock concert; or even more so when they start selling or purchasing stocks to either make a profit or make an investment that will prove profitable in the very near future... 

...Such things as housing prices can be determined by herd behavior and may be augmented by reports. In 2007, the Santa Rosa, California Press Democrat featured an angry letter to the editor asking them not to write anything else on the declines in the housing market. The writer was concerned that continued reports were driving the price of his own house down; in other words, he feared the herd instincts of others who would panic and try to sell before home prices dropped more, which would only lead to a drop in home prices and a flooded market. I say this a lot when I tell people that work with horses that when you try and prevent something from happening, you end up causing it to happen." (SOURCE: http://www.thinklikeahorse.org/index-33.html)

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3 Read more about herding in financial markets (Google search - opens new window)